Swine Flu: The Next Pandemic?

By Steven A. Turner MD

Swine Flu, a seasonal respiratory virus infection in pigs, rarely affects humans. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) reported only twelve cases of human Swine Flu infections during a four-year period from 2005 to 2009 in the United States.

The CDC reports that there are 40 current (laboratory-verified) cases of Human Swine Flu in the United States.

The virus, technically a H1N1 influenza type A virus, is constantly mutating. The virus contains genetic material from Asian Swine Flu, American Swine Flu, avian flu and human flu. And the latest transformation of this virus is keeping the CDC working furiously to identify the scope and magnitude of an infection that is rapidly spreading across the globe.

The symptoms of being infected with Swine Flu are similar to any influenza infection: sore throat, body aches, fever, runny nose, and diarrhea.

Human to human infection spreads by coughing and sneezing. Touching an inanimate object such as a doorknob, which can harbor a virus for days, also transmits the virus.

The CDC states within two days of symptoms, the virus can be treated with antiviral medications such as Tamiflu or Relenza.

The epicenter of this plague is Mexico City, where 149 people have died so far and 1,995 people have been hospitalized with serious cases of pneumonia. There is no vaccine available.

In city that has a population of 20 million, there are only one million doses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu. And if things weren’t bad enough already, a 6.0 magnitude earthquake hit Mexico today.

Mexico City is a virtual ghost town. All schools, museums, zoos and public meeting places have been closed. Even churches have been affected: all masses, baptisms and confirmations were canceled until further notice.

The CDC confirmed yesterday that the virus samples from Mexico deceased victims were essentially genetically the same as the samples from the United States cases.

The difference is that in the United States, no one has died. In fact, only one infected American needed hospitalization.

There may be an age variance in the susceptibility for the swine flu virus.

In Mexico, most of the deaths centered on a population age range from 20 to 45 years old. In the U.S., the infections were found initially in children, all of whom recovered without permanent medical injuries. However, Mexico City has the worst air pollution in North American and its resulting lung damage prior to an influenza infection might contribute to the higher mortality rate.

Or, it may simply be a cultural difference in hand washing frequency. Hand washing with soap removes potentially pathogenic organisms including influenza viruses. Americans may be more diligent about washing their hands throughout the day than their southern counterparts. This may explain the higher prevalence of the virus in Mexico, although no firm conclusions can be made until more information is known about swine flu's incubation period.

Nonetheless, it is the ease of transmission that is worrisome. It is estimated that at any given moment, there are over 75,000 airborne passengers in commercial airline flights. These passengers have already been implicated in the international spread of this virus.

In response to this threat, the European Union's health commissioner today urged Europeans to avoid all non-essential travel to both Mexico and the United States.